Today the finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced repo rate cut in the hope to revive the market. But contrary to this, the market fell today.
Let’s analyze the market. Take a look at the Nifty chart and use Fibonacci to identify the possible level of nifty in near terms. Nifty retraces from 61 percent level also called golden Fibonacci level. If the market continues to move downwards, the nifty can come down to 7340 in June and 6100 in the short term. This is a macro level of nifty and can take months to come to this level. In the past, I was also seeing a flag pattern was building up in the Nifty chart. Now the Nifty has broken the flag pattern which furthers confirms the downward direction. We are also seeing an evening star pattern formed today. In the next few days, I can see that the nifty can come down to 8700 and 8400 levels. If these levels are broken, you can see further lower levels to previous lows. If I use 200 moving average to identify how many stocks are bullish and how many stocks are bearish. I come to know approximately 85 percent of the stocks are in a downtrend.
Let’s have a look at the top ten stocks to understand the market.
Reliance: The one stock that was holding the market up is the Reliance. The price would be managed well until the right issue is there. But this is expensive stocks and stakes in Jio is being sold to outsiders which kind of giving signals that it may come down.
Bharti Airtel: Bharti has done pretty well even than Jio. Mukesh Ambani has started selling his stakes in Jio. His father never sold anything. But started selling which means something is going to happen in the future.
HDFC: HDFC is weaker than the market and already moving down.
HDFC Bank: Hdfc bank is also weak and moving down.
Hinduniliver: FMCG is normally a strong sector in the weaker market. Now, Hindunilver loses all the gains it had earlier and further moving down.
ICICI Bank: ICICI bank is going and weaker than the market.
INFY: Infy has been a strong stock. It might go up to fill the gaps it created earlier.
TCS: it is stronger than the market as most IT stocks are doing.
ITC: It is another weak stock
Kotak Bank: Banks are weak and Kotak bank also started moving down.
If I compare Nifty and Banknifty, I can see, banks are weaker than the market. Banknifty is weaker than the Nifty. Do not buy banks even if you think they are at low levels. If you want to make a stable income or want to create a passive income in the market, learn it properly, and trade safely.