People ask me a question: Sir, where is the Nifty headed? Will it go back towards 11,500- 11,600 level or will it go down? One thing is a fact that we are in a consolidation period now.
In this video, we will analyze of Nifty Bank, Nifty 50, USDINR; and gold, silver, and crude oil.
The market closed up today. In Nifty, we can see that it is forming a triangular pattern. From the top, there was a downward movement in Nifty, and now there is a consolidation happening at current levels and the market is moving in a range. Normally, this kind of pattern is a continuation pattern where the price is likely to follow the major direction and the major direction at the present scenario is the downward direction. If it breaks down the range and started moving down, then by the year-end, you may see Nifty at 10,000-10,200 level. Right now, Nifty is taking support on the golden Fibonacci level which acts as a very strong support level.
If we look at the bank nifty Index, bank nifty is more expensive than nifty and. Same as Nifty 50, this is also in a consolidated range and once this breaks down the range, then by the year-end, you may see Bank nifty at 24,500-25,000 level. At this point, market is giving us an opportunity to book profits and get out now.
It is very interesting to see the pattern of gold. Gold has done a breakout and if we look at the weekly chart of gold, gold has started giving very early indications that the market is likely to go down. Silver also moved up the same as gold. Crude oil is consolidating and moving down. Further downside is expected in crude oil. If we look at USDINR, it is also consolidating but rupee seems to be becoming weak against the dollar.
If we analyze top ten stocks, we can see that HDFC and Hdfc bank are in up move. Reliance is having a selling pressure, even today it had a selling pressure and if you know candlestick you can see head and shoulder pattern is forming here which is making it more bearish. State Bank of India (SBIN) is in sideways movement. TCS is moving up, but it is a little more expensive. ITC is moving down. Infosys is near the breakout and further money is flowing into it. if you look at the pattern that Infosys is forming is a clear-cut buying pressure. Axis Bank is forming a continuation pattern and you can see the selling pressure in this. Kotak Bank is still looking strong. L&T is having a selling pressure. At this point of time, the top 50 stocks of nifty they are giving some opportunities for buying.
Overall if you look at the market, almost 80% of the stocks are still below the 200-day moving average. This might be a good time start looking for good portfolio stocks in small-caps and mid- caps.
One thing I have to say is, always work with the stop-loss. Make sure, you handle your risk well and don’t take big losses. In pathfinders, we train people to become traders and investors and teach how to create a risk-free at least five percent a month on your capital by using the strategies.
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